Political report | October 15, 2026

A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Dele Momodu, has predicted that Peter Obi could decisively defeat President Bola Tinubu in the South-East and parts of the South-South during the 2027 presidential election.

Momodu made the remarks during an interview on Arise Television's Prime Time, arguing that economic hardship could weaken the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)'s support across parts of southern Nigeria.

According to Daily Post, Momodu said Obi could “humiliate Tinubu and all his supporters” in the regions he identified. He also questioned whether Tinubu could rely on a united Yoruba voting bloc while Nigerians continue to face economic pressures.

The comments add to the growing political debate over regional voting patterns, the opposition's strategy and the potential impact of economic conditions on the 2027 presidential contest.

Why Momodu Believes Tinubu Faces a Southern Challenge

Momodu's argument rests on the view that economic hardship could influence voters beyond traditional party and ethnic loyalties.

He specifically identified three areas of concern for the president:

• South-East: Momodu expects Obi to attract substantial support in a region where he performed strongly in the 2023 election.
• South-South: He believes Obi could also challenge Tinubu and the APC in parts of the region.
• South-West: Momodu questioned whether Tinubu could count on unified support from Yoruba voters, arguing that the rising cost of living affects Nigerians across regional boundaries.

These are Momodu's political assessments, not established predictions of the 2027 results. Actual voting patterns will depend on candidates, party alliances, campaign strategies, voter turnout and developments between now and election day.

The Northern Vote Could Become More Important

Momodu also argued that Tinubu would need substantial northern support if he encountered difficulties across the South.

He referred to the political influence of former President Muhammadu Buhari, whose support helped Tinubu's political coalition in the 2023 election. Momodu questioned whether the president could count on the same political dynamics in 2027.

The underlying issue is the geographical distribution of presidential votes. A candidate's regional popularity alone does not determine the outcome of a national election. Candidates must also secure the constitutionally required spread of votes across the federation. Under Nigeria's presidential election rules, a candidate must obtain the highest number of valid votes and at least one-quarter of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of all states and the Federal Capital Territory.

That requirement makes broad national coalitions important for both the APC and opposition parties.

Economic Hardship and the Battle for Voters

Momodu's comments also reflect the central place of economic conditions in the emerging 2027 debate.

Inflation, fuel costs, currency pressures, employment and household purchasing power remain important subjects in political discussions about the Tinubu administration.

For the APC, the challenge is to explain the results of its economic policies and demonstrate improvements in living standards. For the opposition, the task is to present credible alternatives and explain how its proposals would address the same difficulties.

Economic dissatisfaction can affect voting decisions, but it does not automatically translate into support for a particular opposition candidate. Party organisation, local political interests, candidate selection and voter perceptions will also matter.

What This Means for the ADC and Peter Obi

Momodu's remarks are notable because he is an ADC chieftain discussing Obi's potential regional strength. They illustrate how opposition figures are assessing the political landscape ahead of the next presidential election.

However, his comments should not be interpreted as evidence of a formal endorsement or an agreed electoral arrangement unless the parties involved confirm such a position.

The relationship between Obi, the ADC and other opposition leaders will be an important part of the political story as parties clarify their candidates, alliances and strategies.

The APC, meanwhile, is preparing its own campaign structures and will seek to defend its record and maintain support across the country's geopolitical zones.

Note:

Dele Momodu's forecast highlights a possible challenge for Tinubu: whether economic dissatisfaction could weaken his support in parts of the South and make the northern vote more consequential.

But the claim that Obi will defeat Tinubu in particular regions remains a political projection, not a verified election outcome. Establishing how public opinion is shifting would require reliable, recent polling and, ultimately, official election results.

The key question ahead of 2027 is whether dissatisfaction with the incumbent will translate into a coordinated opposition vote—or whether the APC can retain support across enough regions to defend its mandate.

Original source: Daily Post — 2027 presidency: Peter Obi will humiliate Tinubu in some Southern part – Dele Momodu