APM Campaign Council Claims Makinde Can Defeat Tinubu in 12 States, Including Lagos and Rivers

NIGERIA POLITICS | 2027 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

The presidential campaign council of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) has declared that its candidate, Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, can defeat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 12 states in the 2027 presidential election.

In a statement issued on Saturday, October 17, and reported by TheCable on October 18, the council’s Director of Strategic Communications, Richard Ihediwa, said Makinde’s “RESET NIGERIA” message was gaining traction and challenged Tinubu to visit the states on his campaign itinerary to engage directly with residents.

The 12 states identified by the APM campaign council are Oyo, Kaduna, Rivers, Plateau, Borno, Enugu, Bauchi, Sokoto, Delta, Kano, Adamawa and Lagos. The council argued that Tinubu’s planned campaign visits would not change what it described as growing opposition to his re-election.

These are campaign claims, not verified predictions of the election result. The reports did not provide polling data or independent evidence establishing that Makinde is currently ahead of Tinubu in those states.

What prompted the campaign council’s declaration?

The statement followed reports that Tinubu was scheduled to attend APC campaign rallies in 12 states ahead of the 2027 election. The APC itinerary, reported by TheCable on October 15, listed Kaduna, Rivers, Plateau, Oyo, Borno, Enugu, Bauchi, Sokoto, Delta, Kano, Adamawa and Lagos among the states where the President was expected to campaign personally.

The APM council interpreted the itinerary as an opportunity to challenge Tinubu directly in those locations. It argued that presidential campaign rallies would not necessarily overcome public dissatisfaction with economic conditions, infrastructure and other governance issues.

However, the published itinerary does not independently establish why the APC selected those states, and the APM’s interpretation of the President’s strategy remains a political argument rather than a confirmed explanation.

The four pillars of Makinde’s RESET NIGERIA agenda

According to the campaign council, Makinde’s proposed programme centres on four priority areas.

1. Education

The campaign says it would expand access to quality, functional education and improve educational opportunities.

2. Economic development

The council says the programme would tackle poverty by boosting domestic production and strengthening economic activity.

3. Security

The proposed approach combines intelligence gathering, social reorientation and both kinetic and non-kinetic security measures.

4. Socio-political reforms

The council says it wants more inclusive governance, institutional reform and responsible leadership, alongside a proposed four-year transitional government of national unity.

These are the campaign council’s descriptions of the agenda. The reports do not provide a full policy document with detailed costs, implementation timelines, measurable targets or funding arrangements. Those details would be necessary to assess how the proposals could be delivered nationally.

Why Lagos, Rivers and the other states matter

The list spans several geopolitical zones and includes states with different political histories, local interests and electoral dynamics.

• Lagos: A major commercial centre and Tinubu’s longstanding political base.
• Rivers: A politically significant state where competing alliances and mobilisation efforts have attracted national attention.
• Oyo: Makinde’s home state, where his record as governor is likely to form part of his political case.
• Kano and Kaduna: Major northern states with substantial electorates and distinct political dynamics.
• Bauchi, Sokoto, Borno, Plateau, Adamawa, Enugu and Delta: These states broaden the contest beyond a single region and would require separate assessments of local political alliances, candidates and voter concerns.

The campaign council’s confidence does not establish that the same political message will resonate equally across all 12 states. Local voting patterns, party organisation, candidate appeal, economic concerns and turnout can differ considerably from one state to another.

Tinubu’s campaign and the political counterargument

Tinubu’s campaign team has also been organising for the 2027 election. The APC’s reported itinerary includes rallies in the same 12 states identified by the APM council. Separately, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike has publicly pledged to mobilise support for Tinubu in Rivers State and the Federal Capital Territory.

This sets up competing mobilisation efforts, particularly in Rivers, where Wike’s support for Tinubu contrasts with the APM council’s claim that Makinde can win the state.

Neither a campaign council’s endorsement nor a rival’s mobilisation pledge determines the result. Assessing the contest would require reliable polling, verified campaign activity, the final candidate list and ultimately official election results.

Note:

The APM campaign council has made an ambitious claim: that Seyi Makinde can defeat Bola Tinubu in 12 states during the 2027 presidential election. It is presenting the RESET NIGERIA agenda as an alternative focused on education, the economy, security and political reform.

For now, the declaration establishes the campaign’s position—not the electorate’s verdict. The central questions are whether the proposals will be developed into a detailed national programme and whether the campaign can demonstrate measurable support across the states it has named.

Sources

TheCable — APM campaign council: Makinde will defeat Tinubu in Lagos, Rivers, 10 states